Gold Performance 5th November: gold price adds 0.7%, US jobs up next

The gold price closed at about $4,090 an ounce on Thursday 5 November, up nearly $30, or 0.7%, from Wednesday's close. A weaker dollar and falling US Treasury yields after the Democratic sweep of Congress carried it higher overnight, but it slipped from its Asian high and lost more ground in New York after a strong US jobless claims report.

Where did gold move on Thursday?

All of the day's gain came in Asian trade. Gold added about $60 before London opened and touched its high near $4,146 around midday in Asia, building on Wednesday's 3.3% jump.

London was quiet, slipping only a few dollars. New York was where the day turned. Gold lost about $24 during US hours and dipped to about $4,080 in the late New York morning. It bounced almost $50 within the next hour, then drifted lower into the close.

Why gold rose, and why it faded

The overnight lift came from the dollar and bond markets. Economies.com reported spot gold up 1.7% near $4,130 in European trade on Thursday, as the dollar and Treasury yields kept falling after Democratic wins in the congressional elections. Brent crude had dropped nearly 9% on Wednesday on hopes of easing tension between the US and Iran, which cooled inflation worries.

The Bank of England raised its main rate to 4% from 3.75% at noon in London, its first increase since August 2023, Reuters reported. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 8 to 1, with Catherine Mann backing a half-point move. Governor Andrew Bailey warned that more hikes would probably follow if the war in the Middle East drags on. Gold held above $4,100 through the decision.

The US labour market did more damage. Initial jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 189,000 in the week to 31 October, the lowest since late July and below the 197,000 economists expected, the Labor Department said. Kitco's Neils Christensen wrote that the data gives the Federal Reserve room to raise rates in December, a move two Fed policymakers already voted for last week. Gold held near $4,120 right after the 8:30 am release, then sold off through the late morning. Higher US rates weigh on gold because it pays no interest.

Our number: the best four days since August

Since Friday's close near $3,876, its lowest finish in a year, gold has gained about 5.5% in four sessions. On our data since 1968, only about 2% of four-day stretches have risen as much, and this is the biggest four-day gain since late August. Even so, gold is still about 25% below its January record near $5,430.

Up next: what to watch tomorrow

• Fri 6 Nov: the US jobs report for October from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, at 8:30 am New York time. Kitco says markets expect about 65,000 new jobs. Our story on the last jobs report has the background. A strong number would add to the case for a December Fed hike and test gold's hold on $4,000.
• Fri 6 Nov: oil. Brent's slide on Iran hopes is the main reason rate fears eased this week, so any setback in talks would hit gold through yields and the dollar.