Gold Performance 27th October: gold price climbs 1%, Fed up next

The gold price closed at about $4,061 an ounce on Tuesday 27 October, up about $43, or 1.1%, from Monday's close. Oil slipped on hopes for diplomacy over Iran, which cooled inflation fears a day before the Federal Reserve's decision, and buyers returned after gold briefly fell below $4,000 in London.

Where did gold move on Tuesday?

Asian trade was quiet. Gold drifted from Monday's close near $4,018 and was sitting just above $4,000 as Asian dealers handed over to Europe.

London was the low point. Gold slipped to about $3,990 in the London morning, its weakest level of the day on our data, then jumped back above $4,010 before lunchtime in London.

New York did the work. From the New York open gold climbed steadily, reaching about $4,065 by late morning, and spent the afternoon holding near $4,060. Most of the day's gain came in those first few New York hours.

Why did gold rise?

Cheaper oil. Brent crude fell below $115 a barrel on Tuesday as diplomatic contacts involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey raised hopes of calmer Middle East tensions, Equentis Wealth Advisory reported. That matters for gold because expensive energy has kept traders betting the Fed must keep raising rates, a link we unpacked in gold vs oil: why the war premium went missing.

Peter Grant of Zaner Metals said lower oil should help gold by easing inflation worries. Jim Wyckoff of American Gold Exchange saw the other side: if crude climbs again, the inflation and tightening that follow would weigh on the metal.

The Fed still looms. Reuters reported that no move is expected at this week's meeting, but CME FedWatch pricing put the chance of a hike in December at about 83%. Its quarterly poll, out the same day, showed analysts trimming their 2026 gold forecasts for a second quarter running, while still looking for a recovery in 2027.

Our number

It was gold's best day since 15 October and leaves it up about 1.6% this week, after Friday's first close below $4,000 since mid-July. Even so, the price is still about 25% below January's record near $5,426 and down about 6% since the start of the year.

Up next: what to watch tomorrow

• Wed 28 Oct: Federal Reserve rate decision at 2:00 pm New York time, followed by the press conference. No change is expected, so the hint on December is what gold will trade on. Our preview: what gold needs to hear.
• Wed 28 Oct: Bank of Canada rate decision, 9:45 am New York time.
• Wed 28 Oct: Brent crude and any news from the Iran talks, which have set gold's direction all week.