Gold vs. Interest Rates
Gold pays no interest, so when a central bank raises its policy rate, holding gold becomes relatively less attractive, and when rates fall it becomes more attractive. This page lets you check that against the record: gold priced in US dollars next to the US Federal Reserve System’s policy rate, month by month from Apr 1968 to Oct 2026.
Policy rate now
3.88%
since 2026-09-17
Rate, 12 months
+0.00 pts
change over the year
Gold in USD
$4,142
Oct 2026 close
Gold, 12 months
+3.3%
in USD
Gold (USD, log scale)(left axis)US Federal Reserve System policy rate (%)(right axis)
What gold did when rates rose, fell or held
Every twelve-month window in the data is sorted by what the policy rate did over those same twelve months, then gold’s change over the window is averaged. Windows overlap, so treat the rows as a pattern to look at, not as separate tests.
| When the rate was | Windows | Gold, average change | Windows with gold up |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rate risingup 0.5 points or more over the year | 237 | +15.9% | 65% |
| Rate fallingdown 0.5 points or more over the year | 264 | +10.7% | 63% |
| Rate steadywithin 0.5 points of a year earlier | 190 | +6.0% | 58% |
How to read this
- The left axis is gold on a log scale, so equal distances are equal percentage moves. The right axis is the policy rate, drawn as steps because it holds until the next decision.
- Interest rates are one influence among many. Inflation, the dollar, central-bank buying and fear all move gold too, which is why gold has risen in some years of rising rates.
- Gold is the month-end close. The rate is the one in force at month end. Past relationships may not repeat, and nothing here is investment advice.
Gold against other central banks
Interest-rate and inflation data: Bank for International Settlements (BIS), data.bis.org. The BIS is not affiliated with and does not endorse this site.