Euro gold near EUR 3,720 as an ECB hike comes into view
Euro-area inflation at 3.2% has markets weighing an ECB move on 29 October, the day after the Fed.
Key points
- Spot gold at $4,189.40 (9 October) is about EUR 3,724 an ounce at 0.8889 euros per dollar
- Euro-area inflation was 3.2% in August, well above the ECB's 2% target
- The ECB decides on 29 October, one day after the Fed
Why it matters: An ECB hike would likely firm the euro against the dollar, which lowers the euro price of gold even if the dollar price holds steady.
The numbers
At the 5 October rate, today's spot equals about EUR 3,724 an ounce, or about EUR 119.7 a gram.
In sterling, at 0.7557 pounds per dollar, the same price is about GBP 3,166 an ounce.
The ECB question
Euro-area inflation ran at 3.2% in August. Futures pricing on 24 September implied about a 60% chance of a quarter-point ECB hike on 29 October, according to one market report. Sources disagree on the current deposit rate, with figures of 2.00% and 2.50% both in circulation.
Held for: the ECB's current deposit rate from the ECB website, fresh hike odds and a dated euro gold comparison against 16 September.
What to watch
- 28 Oct: Fed decision
- 29 Oct: ECB decision at 14:15 CET
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