Gold tests the top of its October range near $4,200
Friday's rebound has taken gold back to the ceiling of a $155 band it has traded in since the start of the month.
Key points
- Spot gold reached $4,207.10 on 9 October, close to the October high of $4,225.60 set on 2 October
- Since 1 October gold has traded between $4,070.60 and $4,225.60 on our intraday feed
- The price sits about $145 below its 50-day average of $4,333 and $347 below its 200-day average of $4,536
- A daily close above $4,226 would be the first break of the October range
Gold has bounced back to the top of the range it has traded in all month. Spot reached $4,207.10 shortly after 05:00 UTC on Friday and stood at $4,189.40 at 14:16 UTC, up 1.3% on the day on our price feed.
Why it matters: The range has held for seven sessions. Where gold closes relative to its edges, $4,071 below and $4,226 above, will shape the next few weeks for anyone timing a purchase.
The range
Since 1 October gold has been boxed in. The high is $4,225.60 from 2 October. The low is $4,070.60, hit at 12:48 UTC on 7 October as oil spiked and Fed hike bets rose. That is a band of $155, or about 3.7%.
Daily closes have been tighter still, between $4,111.90 on 7 October and $4,178.50 on 1 October. No session this month has closed above $4,180.
| Level | Price (USD/oz) | Where it comes from |
|---|---|---|
| 200-day average | 4,536 | Our daily closes |
| 50-day average | 4,333 | Our daily closes |
| October high | 4,226 | 2 Oct intraday |
| Today's high | 4,207 | 9 Oct intraday |
| Highest October close | 4,179 | 1 Oct |
| Today's low | 4,143 | 9 Oct intraday |
| October low | 4,071 | 7 Oct intraday |
| July low | 3,994 | 16 Jul close |
The trend is still down
The bigger picture has not changed with one good day. Gold is below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and the 50-day sits below the 200-day. On most charts that describes a downtrend.
The slide has been steady. Gold closed at $4,467 on 3 September, its high for that month. It is now about $278 lower. From the record close of $5,426 on 29 January, the fall is 22.8%.
Every week since the start of September has posted a lower best close than the week before: $4,467, then $4,415, $4,373, $4,330, $4,179 and $4,165 this week so far. A close above $4,226 would break that run of lower highs. It would not, by itself, turn the longer trend.
Scenarios from here
Above the range: a daily close over $4,226 opens room toward the 50-day average near $4,333. That level has not been tested since gold fell through it in September. Holding above it would be the first sign the decline is ending.
Inside the range: if gold stays between $4,071 and $4,226, the market is waiting for news. The September US consumer price index on 14 October and the Fed decision on 28 October are the obvious triggers.
Below the range: a close under $4,071 would put the July low of $3,994 and the $4,000 round number in view. That zone held in July, and a close below it would be the lowest since November 2025 on our feed.
These are conditions, not forecasts. Prices can move through any level on a single headline, as Wednesday's oil spike showed.
What drove today's move
The bounce had help from outside the chart. President Donald Trump said the US would not strike Iran before the 3 November midterms, oil eased, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell back from its highest level since 2002 to about 5.24%. A softer dollar, near 102.2 on the index, added support.
Volume will tell traders more. If the move above $4,200 came on thin trade, it carries less weight than a break on heavy volume. CME's daily volume report for COMEX gold is the place to check that after the close.
What to watch
- 9 Oct: the daily close, and whether it lands above $4,179, the best close of October so far
- 14 Oct: US September consumer price index, the likeliest trigger for a break either way
- 28 Oct: Fed rate decision, where markets lean toward a hold before a December hike
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